Airlan San Juan's Blog

Microsoft looks beyond the PC and sees Deja Vu

I was watching Triumph of the Nerds earlier today because of my renewed interest in computer history after me and my wife visited the Museum of Computing History in California after JavaOne 2007.

One of the more interesting segments dwelt on the paranoia of Bill Gates, and about how he could never get it out of his head that the next "Microsoft" might arise at any time and eclipse the real Microsoft, just like his company had broken the dominant sway of IBM over the computing landscape at that time. IBM could have broken and consumed Microsoft easily at the beginning, but had focused on the wrong thing at the time, the hardware, while letting the operating system and software systems out of the bottle, so to speak.

Recently, it has become more and more evident that Microsoft is slowly but inevitably losing its dominant grip on the IT world, with Paul Graham even proclaiming that Microsoft is dead. If this is so, then perhaps Microsoft is not losing power because of Open Source, nor because of hyped products like the stripped down PC called the "Network Computer" in the TV documentary, but by history exacting its own revenge. After all, didn't Stephen King say that Ka is a wheel?

Just as IBM's undoing was the fact that its roots were in the hardware-oriented mainframes that it dominated, Microsoft's roots are tied inextricably to the PC, and this forces the company to see everything around it as extensions of the PC. Microsoft may see and try to anticipate the rise of small devices, but it always sees them in the end as simple peripherals of its own cash cows.

But perhaps ka is telling us that the new paradigm is that the network is in your hands? Perhaps the future is not office workers tied to their desks like industrial revolution automatons, but mobile individuals linking to and interacting with ad hoc networks of autonomous smaller devices?

As more and more "dumb" devices increase in computing capabilities, the dominant companies in those industries are leading the charge to change the way people interact with the "world's blood", the internet, and Java ME is by far the most widely-used application development platform in this arena. For example, cable companies are using Java ME to provide a development framework for millions of their set-top boxes, and are providing features to these small devices that heretofore were the exclusive province of PCs, such as picture viewing and games.

Ka, as the saying goes, is also changeable like the wind. There are some exciting times ahead indeed.

Comments

• Don't write Microsoft off too quickly...

  I think the device often overlooked in such discussions is the games console. The argument goes like this: The current generation are capable of being used to browse the web, file share, and with the addition of a wireless mouse and keyboard could even run basic applications like a word processor or spreadsheet (OpenOffice.org for the PS3, anyone?) The hardware is highly compatible with a domestic environment, being a discrete box which can be installed wherever there's a TV set (by contrast, desktop PC's tend to dominate any room they are located in.) Plus, not only are they usually cheaper, but generally offer a more comfortable 'sit back' experience than being hunched over a laptop.

  Of course, back in 2000 the market leader was about to release a console based on Linux, and when Microsoft failed to persuade Sony to use Windows CE, they announced the XBox. You thought Bill and friends just wanted to create fun games -- in reality it was always about protecting the Windows brand. If Sony had said yes to Windows, the XBox would never have existed.

  Posted by: javakiddy on May 16, 2007 at 02:38 AM

• Microsoft realises there's more than PCs and are investing elsewhere. IBM never did, they saw the PC as no more than a fancy electronic typewriter and thus never saw the growing role of the PC until it was far too late. Even the modular design IBM used for the thing was not deliberate, it was a result of the need to use only off the shelf components because the design budget was so severely limited the team couldn't invest in custom hardware.

  Posted by: jwenting on May 16, 2007 at 04:01 AM

• I think that last Monday's move by Ballmer to turn Microsoft into the world's largest patent troll has sealed that company's fate. From now on it will be in the common self interest of every other company, organization & government in the world that's being held hostage by Microsoft to work on minimizing the legal threat that they pose to their economies by being a 60 billion dollar heavy patent racket business, by putting Microsoft out of business, one way or another. I've seen lawyers already circle around looking or cases & funding to take on Microsoft and start craving them up, and I'd be surprised if Microsoft still exists five years from now, if the word gets around that 'downsizing' Microsoft is a very profitable, high-risk business.

  Posted by: robilad on May 16, 2007 at 04:23 AM

• An interesting point on games consoles, but one other notable point is that, except for the PS3, which has attracted non-gamers in somewhat significant numbers baceuse of it being a good blu-ray player, high-end game consoles tend to be used mostly for gaming by gamers. For example, my dad would never consider buying a game console per se, but is going to be buying the PS3 for the Blu-ray capability. In that sense, unlike cable set-top boxes or cellphones or other consumer products, they are somewhat restricted in their audience.

  Posted by: asj2006 on May 16, 2007 at 05:30 AM

• @asj2006: "high-end game consoles tend to be used mostly for gaming by gamers..." In the same way that the majority of JavaME enabled mobile devices you refer to are currently only used for phone and texting. :)

  Posted by: javakiddy on May 16, 2007 at 07:45 AM

• @javakiddy:

  In the same way that the majority of JavaME enabled mobile devices you refer to are currently only used for phone and texting. :)

  Well, that's certainly true, but then again the numbers of small devices like cellphones are orders of magnitude larger than game consoles. For example, the PS3 has sold only 3 million or so worldwide so far since the holidays, and the Xbox 360 has only sold 10 million units or so after more than 1 year, whereas there are approximately 1.5 or so billion Java ME cells around. In that sense, I think my point that game consoles do not have a major impact for many people (compared to other consumer products) holds true.

  Posted by: asj2006 on May 16, 2007 at 08:38 AM

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