Max Goff's Blog

The Incredible Shrinking Workforce

Some categories of IT professionals naturally shrunk while others grew. The number of computer software engineers, for example, grew by 8% during the period in question, while the number of programmers fell 17%. There are 60% more IT managers today than in 2001 (which includes "staff" management functions as well, or those who function with some management responsibilities but no direct reports or line management authority). Computer support specialists fell by 8%.

So what does all this mean?

A number of things may or may not be affecting the overall health of IT professions. A few explanations that come to mind might include:

1. The data itself is flawed
2. Many dot-com enriched IT pros have retired
3. The economy in general has not done well since 2001
4. Companies are outsouring IT jobs to non-U.S. locales
5. Increasing productivity outpaces IT demand
6. It's all the fault of Bill Gates and George W.
7. Development tools are getting better
8. Off-the-shelf software is getting better
9. The IT industry is fully mature
10. A reality TV gig is a better job prospect
    

While it is likely that a combination of things have given rise to a changing fitscape with respect to IT jobs, it is interesting to note that a shift has occurred, something which has not heretofore affected IT professions so dramatically; not since the invention of the integrated circuit have we seen such a decline. So what do you think?

Comments

• more managers?
  So the number of managers and senior jobs has increased while the total number of people has remained constant.

  That must mean the number of people actually creating the software has gone down sharply, leading to the dreaded inverted pyramid with many managers managing nothing but each other.

  Of course those of us down in the trenches have known this for a fact for quite a while.
  While the number of empty desks in our departments has gone ever up the number of memos, policy statements, project meetings, etc. etc. has gone up leading to ever decreasing productivity (with of course the inevitable extra interim manager being brought in to get it back up who immediately adds his own paperwork and meetings that have to be attended to...).

  Posted by: jwenting on August 09, 2004 at 04:33 PM

• It's normal
  Don't know in the US, but I think it's quite the same: in Italy in the late 90's everybody tried to join the IT wagon. Many of them simply had nothing to do with this profession, so the shrinking it's natural, IMHO...

  Posted by: mkj6 on August 10, 2004 at 01:45 AM

• I say GW
  There has to be a way to pin this on GW and Billy G. Perhaps this should be posted on /. and K5...I'm sure we'll get lots answers from there...

  :)

  Posted by: johnnycannuk on August 10, 2004 at 02:05 AM

• It's normal
  Its true what you say... I now of allot of people that weren’t even interested it computers, let along becoming IT pro's. It was the next best thing since sliced bread.

  Posted by: jakesp on August 10, 2004 at 03:03 AM

• The sales man procedures fever
  One of most notorious problem in the nowadays software development process is the excessive focus on the procedures: the value of the people who studies computing and has the real hability to produce good software have been bypassed by a large set of administrative concepts.

  nowadays it seems to be much more lucrative to manage and to vender software of that to manufacture it.

  This scenario is changing the idea of a large group of people trying to invent new technologies. We have now a small group of people trying to sale the well known stuff instead of creating the new trend, instead of creating new opportunities.

  Posted by: felipegaucho on August 10, 2004 at 04:53 AM

• Managers...

  Naturally, everyone wants to be a manager, since the lowly programmers get offshored.
  

  Posted by: tvaananen on August 10, 2004 at 05:49 AM

• Lack of experienced people
  While there seems to be an abundance of IT workers looking for jobs, finding good people to hire remains a big challenge for companies. One would think it is a buyers market, but I haven't seen that being the case.

  These numbers are misleading. I think around 2000 everyone and their dog considered themselves an IT professional. People with little experience or background (or even previous interest in IT) were getting good salaries for slinging HTML, etc. around. Or those that re-entered the work place to address the Y2K stuff. However, now that the feeding frenzy is over, those that really weren't interested in IT in the first place have gone on to other things (from necessity). IT professionals with a strong background and experience are still very hard to find, and employers are having a hard time filling open positions. If your background consists of coding Applets and web pages, you are not going to get that Sr. Application Developer position... even if they list Java in the description.

  Posted by: gweedo on August 10, 2004 at 05:51 AM

• out-source is the main reason
  it seems that out-sourcing is the major reason. The productivity gain can not be a reason. If it is cheap (because of productivity) to get/use software, people will want a lot more software and therefore much more IT pros.

  Melvin
  http://www.ginkgosoft.com

  Posted by: melvinma on August 10, 2004 at 07:47 AM

• answer 6
  Hey Max! interesting blog. I think It's all the fault of Bill Gates and George W.

  Posted by: caroljmcdonald on August 10, 2004 at 09:07 AM

• Results
  There must be people out there in the real world who've noticed a couple of things:

  1) Most of the money they ever spent on software is gone - either the project didn't deliver, or it did, in which case either the business model shifted and the software didn't adapt or the technology died.

  2) If they spend less on software, their business does better.

  Posted by: peterd on August 10, 2004 at 09:44 AM

• IT-Pros who weren't
  During the Internet bubble in Germany many people suddenly were "IT Pros" just because they've been doing something completely different before, and then switched to coding HTML. Many of those who I know are now back in their old jobs because companies are looking for people who actually have a degree in informatics again.

  Posted by: ctreber on August 11, 2004 at 03:00 AM

• the future is walmart
  america = outsourcing , importing , trade deficit, budget deficit , credit card debt.... The future is either managing outsourcing or working at Walmart the most successful and largest company in USA (and biggest importer)

  Posted by: caroljmcdonald on August 11, 2004 at 07:25 PM

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.