Ron Hitchens's Blog

If things are so bad, why are things looking good?

Offshoring accelerating, layoffs left and right, doom, gloom, oh me, oh my.

And yet, I just landed a terrific job at a great startup (thanks Jason). The work's interesting, I'm learning lots of new stuff and the people there are top-knotch.

I'm starting to get nuisance email solicitations from recruiters again. My independent consultant friends are complaing that they've got too much work. Things generally seem to be hopping. Is it just me or is there a larger shift taking place?

Have things turned around in Silicon Valley? Has the tech market finally begun another up cycle? Is it a dead cat bounce? The quickening of the stream before plunging over the precipice?

My instinct tells me that something's up -- that currents are flowing below the surface. Whether that means a sea-change for the better, choppy sailing or a tsunami approaching over the horizon, I can't be sure. But I do believe that life in Silicon Valley is about to get interesting once again.

Comments

• the light at the end of the tunnel
  is the headlight of the approaching train.

  While things may slowly be on the up again things are still gloomy for most people.
  Some people lend good jobs or are overworked, but that never stopped.
  I'd guess that MORE people are overworked now as ever more work has to be done by ever fewer people.

  Layoffs are down, work is up, but employment is NOT rising as fast as the investments and work volume due to increasing workload on the people left and increased offshoring.

  Work is shifting too, soon only people with 10+ years experience will be able to hold a job and that's when companies will start to find out what happens when there's noone on the market with that experience because they've all been replaced by people in India and Pakistan.
  Another gap will open, the gap when the experienced people retire and there's noone left to replace them.
  What will happen? Will those jobs be offshored too or will there be another surge of foreign labour being recruited to come over to the US and Europe only this time high skill jobs rather than factory workers?

  In the meantime, our own youths will still be out of work and living off the scraps that the taxes paid by the ever shrinking active workforce allows them to be handed out.

  Posted by: jwenting on May 25, 2004 at 03:21 AM

• Re: If things are so bad, why are things looking good?
  Although it is good to hear that things are looking up for you and that the anecdotal evidence you have shows an up swing on the horizon. But I'd like to point out that from my vantage point as a consultant - new clients are scarce and current clients are still very pensive on starting new initiatives. From a higher vantage point I've also noticed that for every "positive" report from fellow peers online that I've encountered, I've encountered just as many negative reports in person from fellow struggling consultants or very qualified peers still looking for employment.

  Posted by: paulgfrey on May 25, 2004 at 07:14 AM

• And now for something completely different
  Seeing as I'm one of those people with more than 10 years experience, I'll provide a counter-point. My experience has led me to a completely different view of the current situation. I'm excited with what I see right now and even more so in the near future. I've had some gloom along the way, so I didn't go through the last couple years unscathed.

  I don't see outsourcing as a problem, even though I am certainly affected by it. Companies are set up to make money and they do that by providing services or products. If we want them to continue to provide either of those, they ought to be allowed to do it the way they need to, without breaking laws. Outsourcing is well within current laws.

  Many of the jobs going overseas are not the ones I compete against. I do web design, but I'm not about to do it for $5 an hour. That's an area I pretty much leave alonen these days. I also do scientific programming which approaches $100 an hour, and that's exactly where I've concentrated my efforts the last couple of years. In between those price points, I do a lot of application development, which also leads to service contracts that flatten out my income spikes and valleys. Offshoring stalled one area of my work, but it helped my skills in the other areas. I've become a better scientific programmer and learned a lot more about running my own business. Offshoring is just competition, nothing more. We all know how to compete, it just takes a little effort to determine what to compete against. I don't compete against price when the market moves below my price point, but I will definitely compete on skill level and service every day of the week.

  Whenever there is a glut of services, such as web design, you can expect it to be done more cheaply down the road. Trying to protect that from competition in a competitive marketplace will not work. You need to add to or change your skills to remain competitive. I used to be completely centered on aerospace, until that started to dwindle 10 years ago. A few years ago, all of my projects were internet-related, which has obviously changed. As I started to see things in the present or future that would affect my ability to be competitive, I took classes, learned skills, or joined groups to learn more. Again, to remain competitive, you need to adjust your skills to the market, not protect yourself from the market.

  The comment that noone will be in the market with a certain experience is unrealistic. If you don't see trends developing, you're not paying attention. I know you're seeing some of those with your comment about people retiring. The baby boomers (I was born in 1964, the last year of the boomers) are retiring at an accelerating rate, which will definitely open up a huge market. If you don't move towards those markets, you're going to risk being left behind.

  The baby boomers are spending the most money on health care and electronics. That also happens to be where a ton of scientific and application development is going on. And now that money is such an issue as you approach retirement, investing and money management is a huge market. If you're worried about your skills now, look into those areas and figure out what you need to have to be competitive. And now that money is being poored back into aerospace and defense, take a look at what's on the horizon in those markets. Find something interesting to you, and go after it. And as much as starting over hurts, if you start over in the right market, you can be on top of it very quickly.

  I have a lot of faith in our youth being able to spot a trend and develop skills to match that. That's what we've all done to get to where we are. I worked some pretty lousy jobs going through school, just like most of my peers. With some luck and a lot of hard work, I've put myself in a pretty decent place, just like most of my peers. I have no doubt that will continue to be the case for the next generations.

  Posted by: mschienle on May 25, 2004 at 07:35 AM

• agree
  A month ago I heard a pitch from a recruiter that I haven't heard for four years. He said "relocation package available." Also, today I got a pitch that included a 3k referral bonus if I helped him place a senior Java developer in the DC metro area.

  Yes, things are picking up. About time.

  Posted by: duanegran on May 25, 2004 at 07:44 AM

• Not here...
  I'd love to think it's getting better, but everything here (Oregon) is very short term contract work with maybe 3-4 full time positions available (based on a dice.com search).

  Not much change, if any, in the last 12 months.

  Posted by: ckessel on May 26, 2004 at 08:32 AM

• I'm busier than ever
  'nuff said.

  Posted by: shodson on July 20, 2004 at 09:36 AM

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