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A Mini-Compendium of Java/JVM Predictions for 2012

Posted by editor on January 2, 2012 at 7:25 PM PST

The new year is always an excellent time to sit back and review the previous year. Even more fun is to then try to forecast what the coming year will bring. Undoubtedly, more Java/JVM 2012 forecasts remain to be published (including the final results of our java.net New Year's poll, which ends this Friday) -- but, enough 2012 forecasts have already been published for us to get a feel for what the community is thinking about in terms of the outlook for 2012.

So, here is a mini-compendium of some of the predictions people are putting forth thus far.

Community

  • Martijn Verburg: "JUGs could set the agenda for Java: The Java User Groups (JUGs) are growing rapidly and are putting their resources and passion into OpenJDK and other Java standards via the 'Adopt a JSR' program. This potentially has a massive impact on the quality and usability of JSRs and the OpenJDK itself."
  • Ted Neward: 'Oracle will "screw it up" at least once. Right now, the Java community is
    poised, like a starving vulture, waiting for Oracle to do something else that demonstrates
    and befits their Evil Emperor status. The community has already been quick (far too
    quick, if you ask me) to highlight Oracle's supposed missteps, such as the JVM-crashing
    bug... and the debacle around Hudson/Jenkins/whatever-the-heck-we-need-to-call-it-this-week. I'll grant you, the Hudson/Jenkins debacle was deserving of ire, but Oracle is hardly the Evil Emperor the community makes them out to be...'
  • Martijn Verburg: "Oracle will continue to work with the Java community to improve relations ... Although there is still miscommunication on both sides from time to time, it's fair to say that things are improving..."

Java/JVM languages within the global technology sphere

  • Masoud Kalali: "Oracle will push Java forward like never before."
  • Martijn Verburg: "More organisations are going to shift back to the JVM. The stability and scalability it offers is still the best out there as sites like Twitter have discovered in 2011."
  • Masoud Kalali: "Java ecosystem will thrive with JavaFX getting open sourced and new big names joining JCP."
  • Ted Neward: "Lisps will be the languages to watch. With Clojure leading the way, Lisps
    (that is, languages that are more or less loosely based on Common Lisp or one of its
    variants) are slowly clawing their way back into the limelight. Lisps are both functional
    languages as well as dynamic languages, which gives them a significant reason for
    interest."
  • Masoud Kalali: "Some of the new cool boys in the JVM town that are claiming to be the next Java will vanish/start vanishing without any trace."
  • Ted Neward: "Scala will get bigger, thanks to Heroku. With the adoption of Scala and Play
    for their Java apps, Heroku is going to make Scala look attractive as a development
    platform..."
  • Mike at titaniumbunker.com: "I think that Oracle will drop Java totally - they've just retired the distributor licence, and they're next looking to use OpenJDK going forwards."

Java Enterprise and the Cloud

  • Ted Neward: "Cloud will continue to whip up a lot of air. For all the hype and money spent
    on it, it doesn't really seem like cloud is gathering commensurate amounts of traction,
    across all the various cloud providers with the possible exception of Amazon's cloud... But, 2012 might be the year that we start to see mainstream cloud adoption..."
  • Masoud Kalali: "GlassFish will get more marketshare and more people will benefit from it's modular and extensible architecture."
  • Martijn Verburg: Java PaaS providers are an "Untapped source for cloud start-ups... you've now got another possible 9-10 million developers who will be very comfortable in creating applications for the cloud..."
  • Ted Neward: "VMWare/SpringSource will start pushing their cloud solution in a major way."

Mobile Phones and Tablets

  • Beta Public: "Apple will achieve minor victories against Android manufacturers for patents currently in suit."
  • Masoud Kalali: "Google will market a revolutionary Android tablet that will change the concept."
  • Ted Neward: "Android tablets will start to gain momentum. Amazon's Kindle Fire has hit
    the market strong... The Nooq (the Kindle's principal competitor, at least in the e-reader world) is also an Android tablet, which means that right now, consumers can get into the Android tablet world for far, far less than what an iPad costs..."
  • Beta Public: "Research In Motion ceases to exist as anything but a service provider."
  • Ewan Spense provides a bit of everything in The Good, The Bad and The Ugly, Some Mobile Predictions for 2012

Oracle and Google

  • Martijn Verburg: "The Oracle/Google does not look like being resolved any time soon. This still continues to have a negative impact on the developer community and beyond."
  • Beta Public: Oracle and Google will continue to battle throughout 2012. It will become clear that neither organization is interested in a settlement or compromise. By the time Google finally wins, Android will be the last major project using Java, forcing Oracle to sell Java to Google.

Conclusion

Finally, my own BOLD prediction for 2012:

  • Kevin Farnham: "One thing is certain: 2012 is going to be a very interesting year!"

Poll

Our current java.net poll asks you to respond to The most important Java/JVM news/event/happening in 2012 will be related to.... Voting will be open until Friday, January 6.


Articles

Our latest java.net article is SWELL - An English-Like DSL for Swing Testing by Sanjay Dasgupta and Chirantan Kundu.


Java News

Here are the stories we've recently featured in our Java news section:


Spotlights

Our latest java.net href="http://www.java.net/archive/spotlight">Spotlight is Jonathan Giles' JavaFX links of the week, January 2:

It’s another year already! I hope everyone had a great start to 2012. Because I published last weeks links roundup a few days late, there aren’t too many links this week, but the links I do have below are all of a very high quality. Enjoy...

Previously we featured Alexis Moussine-Pouchkine's 2011, a year of delivering on the roadmap:

After 323 posts here on TheAquarium, 2011 is coming to an end. Let's look back at what we had hoped to achieve and how the GlassFish team (and others) delivered on the promises...


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-- Kevin Farnham

Twitter: @kevin_farnham