Poll Result: Developers Expect Java EE 7 to Become Predominant within 2-3 Years
Most voters in the just-completed Java.net poll on Java EE 7 believe that Java EE 7 will be the most widely used version of Java EE within the next few years. A total of 354 votes were cast in the poll, which ran for three weeks.
The exact question and results were:
How long will it be before Java EE 7 is the most widely used Java EE version?
14% (51 votes) - Less than 6 months 18% (65 votes) - About a year 32% (112 votes) - 2 or 3 years 16% (58 votes) - Up to 5 years 8% (30 votes) - More than 5 years 7% (26 votes) - It will never happen 3% (12 votes) - Other
To me, this poll both provides an overall community opinion (but, as I am always bound to say: this is not a scientific poll), while also providing some opportunities to speculate on what some voters might be thinking.
On the one hand, about a third of voters think Java EE 7 will be the most widely used edition with just one year. Now, that would surprise me, but it's good to know that many developers see Java EE 7 as providing sufficient impact that the companies they work for will quickly adopt it. Of course, you'd think that almost all of these voters are currently working with (or believe most others are working with) Java EE 6.
Add in the "2 or 3 years" votes, and you've got about 2/3 of the voters believing that Java EE 7 will be the predominant Java EE version a few years from now. This, to me, sounds reasonable, and likely. Java EE 7 is an important release. But, enterprise software vendors cannot afford to release new versions without thoroughly vetting the releases, which takes time. And, upgrading to a new version of Java EE takes time (which is why so many vendors are still developing their applications using Java EE 5).
For this reason, it's easy to agree with the 24% who think it will take "Up to 5 years" or "More than 5 years" before Java EE 7 becomes the most widely used edition. These people are very likely working on apps built on Java EE 5 or even Java EE 4.
Still, adding all these numbers up, this poll shows 88% of voters believing that, eventually, Java EE 7 will become the most widely used version of Java EE.
Where I start wondering is in the voters who selected "It will never happen." Why do they think Java EE 7 will never be the most widely used Java EE version? Do they think Java EE 7 is flawed in some fatal way? Or, do they think Java EE is destined for the dustbin of history? I wish some of these people had posted a comment!
And 3% chose "Other." I actually thought I'd covered all logically possible answers to the question, this time. I mean: "How long will it be before Java EE 7 is the most widely used Java EE version?" And my response options ranged from "Less than 6 months" to "More than 5 years" and "It will never happen"... Are their other possible answers to the question??? Yet, no one left a comment explaining their vote for "Other"...
Oh well... I think this poll produced an interesting result -- which is my objective in designing the polls. As always, I welcome suggestions for polls. Surely you have an idea for a poll, right? Surely there's something you'd like to ask the Java community! If so, contact me with your idea at editor -@- java.net. Do volunteer to help - I love working with others who have fresh ideas about potential polls!
New poll: So, this "cloud" thing - does it matter?
Our current poll asks Does 'the Cloud' change anything?. Voting will be open until Friday, July 12.