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Geeky predictions for 2010

Posted by joconner on January 4, 2010 at 9:43 AM PST

 Everyone has something to say about the past. Few can see the future. Here are my predictions for 2010!

  1. Oracle will prefer Eclipse and will let NetBeans go. I don't like it anymore than you, but why would they support two (three with JDeveloper?) competing IDEs? Oracle's existing staff knows and loves Eclipse, their tooling is built around Eclipse, their plugins are built for Eclipse. Why change something if you don't need to? My only question is who will pick up the support for NetBeans, which is otherwise a great product and is definitely worth saving...just not worth it for Oracle.
  2. Chrome OS and Android OS will converge. The world doesn't need two new operating systems from Google, not for web apps. I know that these two OSes are coming at web apps from two different scales: desktop/laptop/notebook vs mobile phone. However, the APIs should be the same for maximum acceptance from the community, and that means these two will become one. You can read more about this prediction in one of my prior blogs.
  3. Google will buy LinkedIn. Although useful and still a great site, LinkedIn is getting a bit stale. Google could inject new ideas to make a good product even better.
  4. Oracle will sell off Sun's hardware business. Oracle with hardware? I can't believe it. It's too much of a departure from their software business. I think Oracle will push the hardware off to HP.
  5. Adobe will steal some of JavaFX's thunder this year prior to JavaOne by announcing its own, improved designer tool for Flex that actually exists and is available at the time of their announcement. Sun's JavaFX Designer tool will limp into existence at JavaOne 2010 and everyone will forget that Sun promised it before the end of 2009.

Got predictions of your own? Let's hear them!

 

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Comments

RE:Geeky predictions for 2010

The hardware part of sun (app servers,storage,networking etc.) will be quite useful to Oracle if they are planning to venture into cloud software service offerings, where they wont have to rely on/procure 3rd party physical infrastructure by paying up additional costs. One thing to watch for in 2010 will be where Oracle parks the MySQL or how it plugs that in the existing RDBMS game plan. i also see Java Fx Vs. Flex in the same boat as the Netbeans Vs. Eclipse. Both of them are good tools but challenges are in terms of current market share/developer community support.

I don't make predictions as

I don't make predictions as 99% of predictions are wrong, so I frankly find them a wasted effort ;-)

ButI think that NetBeans is palatable for Oracle for some reasons, one very important being the NetBeans Platform. JDeveloper doesn't have anything similar; IDEA has recently introduced it, but it's focused on IDE tasks; so basically there are only two products around, NetBeans and Eclipse RCP. Sun, among other bad things, has never historically pushed it, and in spite of it there's a huge platform of users - it sufficed for Geertjan Wielenga to devote some time to this task, and it discovered dozens, and many are very large (manufacturers, telcos, military). If you read at the interviews, most of these customers choose the NetBeans RCP because it's Swing and would never go the way of the Eclipse RCP - thus, basically the two products fit two very complementary portfolio of users. Sun's management, also considering the input from the community, has acknowledge that and recently changed attitude towards it. This segment alone can be immediately profitable by selling consultancy and education - after all, third parties and freelances (as me) are already doing business on it.

IDE Platform

Actually JDeveloper does have an equivalent core platform that is used to build other tools in Oracle such as SQL Developer; but it is not something that has been externalized. Gerard

JavaOne 2010?

 "... limp into existence at JavaOne 2010" You're predicting that there will be a JavaOne 2010?

Well, considering that there

Well, considering that there has not been any CFP, that usually took place in Fall, I'd bet that there will no J1 2010, or it won't be in June, or it will be very different from the past (refinement process for talks has always been very complex, with multiple reviews and edits - too complex IMO - and took months).

For the record, the Moscone

For the record, the Moscone is still booked for J1 2010: http://www.moscone.com/site/do/event/view?nav.type=0&nav.filter=1005&nav...

No way

Oracle really WANTS Sun's hardware business, it was a major reason they bought Sun. Just look at their Exadata system. They used to build a "database appliance" with HP hardware to compete with Teradata, but now Exadata 2 is build with their own hardware. Plus Solaris is the most popular platform for running the Oracle database, and therefore Sun hardware is very popular with Oracle customers. Now Oracle can provide an end to end stack, from the CPU and hardware right up to the middleware and services. I also disagree with you point on NetBeans. Based on your logic, they would have dumped JDeveloper a long time ago. They didn't. That's because there is a large number of internal employees that use it, it is used for some of their tools like SQL Developer, and there are a lot of Oracle customers that use it for Oracle specific development. Once they buy Sun, there will be a lot of Sun employees that use and prefer NetBeans, and Sun products built on the NetBeans platform like Visual VM, and GlassFish Enterprise Monitor. There is a PDF on Oracle's website that talks about the future of many Sun software products including NetBeans, and Oracle said they will continue to develop NetBeans to provide choice to their customers. There would be LOT of angry developers if they cut NetBeans loose because the large NetBeans fan base finds it far superior to Eclipse. I don't get your point about Adobe announcing a designer tool. They already have one, and I doubt they will ever touch JavaFX. I predict that the release of JavaFX 1.3 along with the 1.0 release of the designer tool and composer tool (like matisse) will be the real 1.0 release. Once developers have a full stack that they can use, then I predict most *Java* developers using Adobe Flex will choose Java FX instead because it is an all Java solution, and integrates really well with existing Java code and technologies. The same reason .NET developers prefer Silverlight over Flex. Even if some existing Java developers who use Flex choose not to abandon their new Flex skills, anyone new to RIA will find the use of Java FX a much better option than Flex.

Oracle will not sell Sun's hardware business

I'm surprised about (4). Why would anyone spend billions of dollars to buy a hardware company just to sell off its hardware business? I don't think Sun has significant software revenues and what it has is closely linked to the hardware business. I think Oracle wants to be the one stop shop for big enterprises and to keep IBM and HP out Oracle needs to sell servers and storage.

hope you are wrong

1. I think this would be detrimental for java. Eclipse was already having trouble keeping pace. Not having a competitor would make it worse. More over, IBM will become Oracle's chief rival. I would imagine they would like to force IBM to spend money on dev tools.

2. don't care, but this would seem better

3. Don't care...but this would seem better

4. Oracle needs the hardware to compete with IBM for the BIG contracts. IBM's bundling of software with hardware has been a thorn in Oracle's side. If they can offer the hardware as well, then oracle gains a strategic selling advantage. I think this may be real. However, I would expect it to focus on midrange and high end and let the commodity stuff go.

5. I think the authoring tool will be announced as soon as the merger is final. I have no way of knowing, but that is my suspicion. Of course, this would be a dev preview with the final release occuring at JavaOne...which will be OracleWorld.

agree w/lstroud's #4, except...

I read a comment somewhere a while ago (on slashdot, I think, which has a few thinkers mixed in w/all the kiddies) that said Oracle probably wanted a complete stack (hardware up) to go head-to-head against Microsoft.

Sounds plausible to me, as does your comment. The only thing is: you cannot sacrifice the entry-level. That's how MS became so big.

JavaFX Authoring Tool

My pessimistic side would agree with you about the JavaFX authoring tool. Sigh. Why annouce it, saying a dev preview by end of 2009 - then keep absolultey silent about it?