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Will JavaFX Ever Become Predominant for Developing Java Client/Desktop Apps? Poll Result

Posted by editor on July 28, 2012 at 2:27 PM PDT

JavaFX has certainly come a long way in the past 18 months or so. But, will its momentum continue to the point where it eventually displaces most other platforms that are used for developing Java client/desktop applications? Our recently completed poll asked the community for its views on the future of JavaFX. A total of 660 people cast votes in the poll. The exact question and results were:

How long will it take for JavaFX to become the most widely used development platform for Java client/desktop apps?

  • 14% (90 votes) - Under 2 years
  • 17% (114 votes) - Between 2 and 5 years
  • 6% (42 votes) - Between 5 and 10 years
  • 3% (20 votes) - More than a decade
  • 23% (149 votes) - It will never happen
  • 12% (76 votes) - I don't know
  • 26% (169 votes) - Other

How does one interpret these results? "Other" received the most votes, but no one chose to post a comment stating why they selected "Other." Surely the timespan options cover the entirety of the future, and "It will never happen" covers the possibility that JavaFX never becomes predominant. So, logically, what "Other" possibility is there? That JavaFX is already "the most widely used development platform for Java client/desktop apps"? I doubt those who selected "Other" believe that... Perhaps they didn't like or found something to be wrong with the question itself?

Setting aside the (for me) puzzling plurality in favor of "Other" -- the remaining votes tell an interesting story [standard dislaimer: this is not a scientific poll]. Among the people who didn't select "Other," 54% believe that eventually JavaFX will become the most widely used development platform for Java client/desktop applications; 30% believe this will never happen; and 15% don't know.

The plan for JavaFX as laid out at last year's JavaOne was encouraging, with JavaFX scheduled to become fully available on Mac OS X and Linux in the coming years. It certainly appears that JavaFX has complete support from Oracle. But, despite this, only a little more than half of the developers who expressed a view are confident that JavaFX will become predominant as the development platform for Java client/desktop apps.

Given the recent news regarding Project Jigsaw -- that it's now "Late for the train" -- you have to wonder if people have doubts about other elements in the plan for Java that was laid out at JavaOne (less than 10 months ago). Will the full porting of JavaFX to OS X and Linux really happen per the previously-stated schedule?

New poll: Project Jigsaw and Java 8

Our new poll, in fact, asks developers for their view of the Project Jigsaw situation: What's your view of the proposed removal of Project Jigsaw from Java 8? The poll will run until Friday, August 10.

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